пятница, 17 октября 2008 г.

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The historic cross-sector implosion has shaved years off most IRA and 401(k) accounts.� It's like we're all suddenly 10 years younger ... Except that we're not.� The CEO of my firm tells the story of the 60ish fellow he met at the airport who had parked 100 of his retirement monies in a turbo-charged bond fund that must have been slurping down the toxic debt cocktails because this fellow was down 80.� Ever seen a grown man you just met cry ?� That's exactly what this guy did.



Many have yanked all their retirement monies out of equities, or even the market altogether.� Is this smart ?



Investing is all about optimization, not recriminations.� Remember, Mr. Market doesn't know you personally and there's no way you'll ever "get even".



Irrelevant of how much is sidelined currently, over the next 5-10 years, retirement money will flow into equities.� Retirement is a long ways off for the biggest 401(k) and IRA contributors and once the smoke clears they will once again have visions of posh retirement communities and endless vacations revolving through their heads.



The most difficult skill to possess in trading/investing is the ability to imagine how you would view matters if you were not involved and had not been involved.� Right now, try imagining that you have invested in nothing your whole life, your retirement accounts have always been in treasuries, and here the market is down 40.� What would you do ?



Professional money-management is all about not making mistakes : the name of the game is relative performance in good times and capital preservation in bad.� It's all about the fees, and the more loot you got under management the more fees you get.�



Given that most managers have lost their clients dumptrucks of Benjamins in a very short time, what will be their modus operandi once they don't have to run out for more Tums every hour ?� I believe they will quickly rush to over-own the "safe stocks" -- those with the least chance of further losses.� And I view right here right now as a good opportunity to get in front of these managers.



The major pharmas that have been badly beaten up.� BMY down from 32 to 16.5 ,� MRK 60 to 25 , LLY , PFE 25 to 15.5 , LLY 60 to 32.� I am using limit orders to scoop up bits and pieces near the lows for my IRA.� Big pharma is not in good shape internally, and in a bull market I wouldn't touch them, but it is a very predictable and safe business in poor economic conditions.� I believe that many long-only fundies are sitting on their hands, and that when credit-markets unfreeze they will move big pharma up perhaps 20.



More on safe stocks later.


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